Alert: What we can learn from the dogs
Sunday, August 1, 2004
Politics
Today I've been reading about an impending alert coming from Homeland Security. To me, it seems that we are going about this all wrong.
During World War II, the Allies broke the German High Command and Japanese secret codes. The fact that these codes were broken was among the most protected of all state secrets. Having your enemy know you are listening into your communications is one thing, letting them know you understand is very different indeed.
So where does that lead us? We listen into a massive amount of communication traffic every day.We spin it through our computer systems, and hopefully connect the dots to what our enemies are planning. So far so good. Then we put out an announcement that we are about to be attacked with some broad statement about targets.
The threat level is changed to another color; state and local resources are mobilized across the country. The citizenry begins to notice police and national guard around major landmarks but, mostly, nothing happens. Despite imploring everyone to be on the lookout, we have succeeded in making everything look normal. We even urge the citizenry to go about their normal business.
A few things come to mind from our current course of action. First, why are we telling the bad guys what we know? If we are being truthful with our warning statements, then we are helping the bad guys by cautioning them to be more careful or clever with their coded messages. Perhaps we are even suggesting a target shift.
If we are trying to fake them out by putting out false public alerts then we are misleading the public. That might be okay, but we always seem to be asking people to be extra alert. This feels kind of like the school kids who are always tapping someone on the opposite shoulder and then laughing when the person turns to find nothing there.
Even those extra alert citizens looking under rocks for the enemy are now looking in all the wrong places. Besides, as we said, do you or your friends step up your vigilance every time an alert is announced? I surely don't know of anyone.
Then there is the issue of nationwide alerts. The alert is issued, and state and local officials swing into action from Podunk to New York, from Backwater Springs to San Francisco. Is our threat analysis so gross that we can't narrow down the threat and hence the related costs?
One of the big complaints about the current approach to homeland security is that most of the costs are borne by states and local governments. In these times, neither seems flush with the financial resources to provide extra security without impacting other local services. The apportioning of federal funds seems to view all areas as being equals. Nice to know they read the Declaration of Independence. However, here, equal should be applied to real threat possibilities not all locales across the country.
So we now reach a third point, and an opportunity for improving our response. It's time to go back to school and learn a little from the social scientists. Remember Pavlov and his dogs? You probably do, but you might not remember one of the conclusions. Random reinforcement is more effective than constant reinforcement. Going back to school days, the threat of a "pop-quiz" did more to keep students up-to-date on their schoolwork than simply announcing the test dates in advance. In the latter case, you could blow off your studying and cram for a test. In the former case, you never knew when the quiz was coming, and so you tried to keep up with the work so as not to get caught.
Our current threat situation matches the school situation quite well. We don't know when there might be an attack, so we should continue to prepare — read pop-quiz. The other choice is to respond to an attack, hardly what we want to do.
However, this statement is at least one layer too shallow. What we should be doing is conducting selective, random increases in security to targeted locations. Some of these security escalations should be directed at protecting "real" targets, others at targets that are worthy of protection but perhaps not at risk. The advantage of this approach is that we confuse our enemies. Our enemies response might be, gee, they are protecting the statue in central Podunk, our messages have not been compromised. Oops, the Backwater Springs water system is under around the clock security. They have uncovered our plans, we better shift to another target.
Randomly changing our security targets requires fewer resources. It also gives us laboratories to develop our techniques for providing security. Secondly, this approach better hides what we know and what we don't know. Finally, if we do protect the right target, we potentially force a change in plans, and what we do know is these attacks are planning intensive.
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Update: The new alert is selective but it cites the target and our intelligence. No real lesson learned quite yet. I hate to say it again, the world is not black and white. We need an approach that can discern the differences in shades of grey. Remember, "they" are hiding in the shadows.
One Year On
Thursday, July 1, 2004
Personal
A quick update on the last year since I haven't been posting much personal stuff to the blog. Today I celebrate my first year in retirement. The year itself has been more interesting than I might have imagined. Early on, I was very busy with a long term consulting project that suddenly came to a halt due to an external event directed at the contracting company. We mutually agreed to terminate our arrangement though in hind site there was no need to take such an action.
Shortly thereafter, I began work on a significant website redesign project which continues to this day. The transformation is significant, and the results are gratifying. Still more to do, but we are over the hump.
Late in the year I became co-editor of eLearning Dialogue, and online newsletter published by Syllabus Magazine. Really co-editor is not technically correct, but along with Steve Acker of Ohio State University we are responsible for the primary content, editor technically belongs to permanent Syllabus staff.
Next on the plate is a book chapter with a colleague from MIT, Phil Long. Don't know if it is appropriate to cite the book title yet, but our work is nearly done.
Two final activities focus on mentoring relationships. I continue to counsel high school students about the college admission process. Very gratifying and rewarding. Finally at the end of June I spent the week as a business advisor for Youth Business week. This involved working with 8 high school students in an immersive, simulation filled week-long long program. I think the student really gained a great insight into the world of business. It was really great to be along for the ride and to see their growth.
Add in a few additional consulting project not cited above, and time to goof off a bit, and you can see how quickly a year can pass.
One Way Vision
Tuesday, June 15, 2004
Politics
It was Richard Nixon who campaigned his way to the presidency with a "secret plan to end the war." It took more than a few years for the secret plan to work its way out. Along the way it certainly wasn't clear that any plan was being followed. Oh well, it's just past history.
The Bush/Cheney administration has taken the concept of secrecy to a new level over the last four years. Take for example the administration's Energy Task Force, conceived in secrecy and dedicated to the proposition that if you aren't a member of the club, you don't have anything to say anyway. Sounds pretty secret to me. Then there is the link, most notably espoused by Mr. Cheney, Al-Qaeda, 9/11 and Iraq. When the 911 Commission reported a failure to uncover such a link, Mr. Cheney continued to espouse the link. The 9/11 Commission implored the administration to provide evidence, but none was provided. It was easier for Mr. Cheney to assert the link without evidence. I guess its just a secret we cannot be trusted with. Add the failure to uncover weapons of mass destruction, and a host of unclear objectives in the prosecution of the war, we as a citizenry are not to be trusted with anything more than the "fog of secrecy."
Since we are not privy to looking from the outside in, how about from the inside out. A recent Salon article citied a Wall Street Journal report on Haliburton's contracts with Iraq. Remember Mr. Cheney denied any contact with Iraq during his tenure as CEO of Haliburton. Furthermore he decries the pre-war contacts of others with this axis of evil, yet his company had significant contracts with Saddam's Iraq. Seems to me that this is hiding behind the mirror so to speak. Recent Pentagon emails also infer a strong link to Mr. Cheney's office in the awarding on non-bid contracts to Haliburton as well.
It seems that attacking others for their ignorance of the facts, however hidden they might be, is mightier than self-reflection in the light of revealed documented information. One way vision is the next step in the ever advancing world of secrecy.
Living in the Bush
Wednesday, March 17, 2004
Politics
It’s different living in the bush. Your territory is unbounded. In every direction it is your world; there is no other world but yours. In this bush world, the chief is the supreme ruler. His rule is law, his perceptions are your perceptions; he shares his world with you through his generosity. It is good living in the bush.
The chief is not alone in ruling this bush world. He is guided by the medicine man, a person so powerful that his word cannot be doubted. The medicine man interprets the bush world in strange and mysterious ways. Only he can see with so much vision, and only he can interpret the mysteries of the bush. The medicine man rarely speaks to the people for only the chief can fully understand the medicine man. When the medicine man does speak to the people, his messages leave them quaking in awe of his vision and power.
The rules in this bush world are simple, black and white. The chief pronounces these rules as they come down from the God in heaven. God speaks to the chief and the medicine man. Sometimes the chief understands. Other times, he looks to the medicine man to interpret the message. The people do not make the rules in this bush world for they lack the insight to understand the law of the bush. Some in the tribe try to hear God though the chief tells them that he and the medicine man are the only tribal members with a clear channel to God. However, some of the tribe listens for God in their own way. Other tribal members only listen to their hearts.
All is good in the bush or so it seems. If you follow the rules there are no problems. However, there are problems—problems that the chief or even the medicine man do not see. The people are starting to see that the rules of the leaders are not working. They do not make sense unless you are a chief, medicine man or true believer. Some people are troubled; they do not see the world as it has been declared. They are seeing white, grey or even colors where the leaders are seeing black. Their world is not as it once seemed. These people, fear for themselves and their tribe. The sense that they are not alone in the bush. They have seen the signs, but they have been told that the chief has spoken; the medicine man has spoken. They are afraid.
It’s difficult living in the bush. Sometimes it doesn't make sense. How do you survive living in this world?
I can see somewhat clearly now…
Thursday, September 4, 2003
Personal
A visit to the doctor produced some good news. I am now seeing well enough to resume driving and normal day-to-day activities. This is a welcome relief from being chauffeured around, taking it easy, and limiting my reading and general use of even my good eye.
Today, for the first time in two weeks, the patch is off, and the vision while not up to past standards, nonetheless, is adequate for looking around, driving and such. The doctor is pleased with the progress, and hopefully using the eye will lead to slow, but steady improvement.
Next Thursday I return for another follow-up visit. If things continue to progress as they have, my vision will not be any impairment to normal activities. For now, besides driving, I can read, work more extensively and generally resume more normal activities.
A break from the news on my eye
Tuesday, September 2, 2003
Personal
Despite my medical condition, today I testified via video conference in a patent trail. My testimony is straight forward in that it describes an online application system for college admission that pre-dates the patent filing of a company.
What I described was fully operational in 1996 and the patent filing was in 1997. I am not a party to this suit, but it is clear to me that many of the features were implemented earlier than the claimed innovations.
Eye'm Not Sure
Monday, August 18, 2003
Personal
Last December I started seeing floaters in-front of my eyes. This was the second time this had happened. The last time my doctor chalked it up to a form of migraine headache without the usually associated pain. This time, however, the floaters simply did not go away.
A call to the doctor produced an appointment with the opthemologist, who after a quick check of my eye informed me to quickly drive to the Retinal surgeon making sure I avoided any potholes on the way!
The short version of this part of the episode was that I had a rare disease for someone my age called Coat's Disease and I immediately had laser surgery to fix the problem.
Nearly eight months had passed and all checkups had been clean since that day in December when in three and a half hours I had gone from initial diagnosis to laser surgery.
Today, however, the diagnosis was not good. The prior repair is leaking and this ultimately may impact my vision via a detached retina. I am tying up a few urgent matters before calling the doctor back to finalize our strategy moving forward.
Keeping my fingers crossed.
Groking Tinderbox
Friday, August 8, 2003
Technology
I've been using Tinderbox to write this weblog for a while. At the same time I tried using Tinderbox for some of my other brainstorming and project management activities.
Up to now, however, I wasn't really using it. Maybe it was because I was busy, or lazy, or because Tinderbox has so many hidden features, and I didn't take the time to really learn it. Anyway, the release of Tinderbox 2 was a great excuse to start afresh. All I can say is WOW.
I started with a old/new approach to my paper filing system based on the nMemodex system developed by Robert Gordon years ago. In a nutshell, I picked up a random piece of paper in my mess and titled it, added attributes for Source and Topic and added an automatically generated sequence Identifier. Adding a quick summary ends the first part of the process.
Documents are then simply filed in Identifier order in a series of folders. The beauty of this is I don't need to think about where to file a document e.g. Topic A or Topic B. Rather I simply note both topics in the attribute.
Need to find a document, Tinderbox's search finds nearly everything with a few key strokes. Creating a few agents organizes information in more traditional file folder form. When a topic becomes significant enough to move from a virtual folder to a physical folder, it only takes a few moments to pull things together. Since every document has an Identifier in the order received, the order within the folder is easily established.
With this project behind me, I returned to some of my earlier Tinderbox files, brainstorms and a project or two. In no time I jumped the curve to tapping the power of Tinderbox and now, it is always running along with a few key documents.
Retired
Monday, June 30, 2003
Personal
Today is my last day as a California State University employee. The budget situation in California brings to an end over thirty-five years of CSU employement. I can't really complain too much. After leaving Sonoma State University in 1998, I continued on the payroll working on two important projects, the IMS Global Learning Consortium and CaliforniaColleges.edu. Both of these activities were rewarding and a much need change of pace from my work as Associate Vice President for Enrollment Services.
To all my friends still trying to survive the budget mess, good luck and keep in touch.
Sorry but ...
Monday, June 16, 2003
Politics
When I started this weblog, I really thought I would be focusing on the world of technology. Much of my background is in this area, and certainly I spend much of my day in this arena.
The problem is that I am equally confronted by the Bush administration and the incredible distortions of logical thinking it produces. Today I read that President Bush is attacking "revisionist historians" for their interpretations of the history of the Iraqi war. If you read my piece, Governing from 30,000 Feet, you already know I find the logic underlying this administration suspect. When I see Bush continue to assert the Saddam Hussein as a direct threat to the United States, I wonder how many more distortions we can be fed before we have enough.
One need only review history with a capital H. It was the United States and many of the key figures in this administration who supported Saddam in the 80's. It is the father of this president who called off the first war without resolution, and more importantly structured a half-assed end of that war. Saddam is a truly evil person, one of many in the world. We did not need to fabricate a series of assertions to prove this point. I am tired of being fed the warped constructs of this administration. If I question them, I am unpatriotic, and incapable of understanding the threat to the United States. When members of this administration are caught in fabrications or unjustified policies, the last thing on their mind is an apology.
In the end, I am capable of understanding potential threats especially if I am not subjected to extensive government sanctioned misinformation. More importantly, I have little confidence that Bush and company are suited to the task looking out for my best interests because they have become a threat unto themselves.
Carefully look at the assertions from Washington. They are worthy of your careful attention, analysis and skepticism.
Governing from 30,000 feet
Saturday, June 7, 2003
Politics
As George Bush left the middle east peace summit, Air Force One was routed over Baghdad for a presidential viewing. It struck me that this is the way the Bush administration approaches governing, from 30,000 feet, where only the larger objects are seen, and the details fade into the landscape. It is not easy from this height to see the unintended consequences, the missed targets, the situation on the ground that must be contended with on the basis of reality rather than as a idealized expectation.
If you look at the policies of this administration, and the approaches that are taken, broad brush strokes are the rule. Issues are black and white. If you don't like the intelligence, then shift the analysis to people who believe as you do.
Take some time to think about what is happening to you personally. To paraphrase a famous political ad, ironically from the Reagan campaign, are you better off now than you were x years ago. You fill in the x. You have tax cuts, but what about your household situation. Better or worse. Are you happy with your health insurance plan, if you have one, or is it not quite as good as it was a few years ago.
Living in California, I am enduring and personally touched by the state's budget crisis. Any way you look at it, 35 billion dollars is a lot of money to bridge to balance the budget of the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world. Will it take a meltdown of this size to be seen from 30,000 feet to awaken the American public to the fact that they are not being served. In the case of California, I doubt it since California did not vote the right way in the last election. Maybe there is another large object down there that will melt down as a warning that all is not right on the ground.
We are being bombarded from the height-distored view of an administration out of touch with the real issues necessary to promote a safe, secure and prosperous America. It is time for more of us to question rather than accept the view from above.